Atlantic Division Update: Four Potential Playoff Teams

Jeremy Kenter's picture

Teams have completed nearly two-thirds of the 2007-08 NHL regular season. With an important trade deadline approaching, Ottawa and Carolina made a significant trade that favored the Senators. I am confident that we did not see the last of the transactions before Feb. 26 (3pm EST). There are many daily reports from various news agencies about predicted trades, who is mostly likely to dealt, etc. Meanwhile, the playoffs are also forthcoming in less than 60 days. Here is my outlook for the five teams comprising Atlantic Division.

Approximately 9 teams have a 90 percent chance or higher of making this year’s playoffs, according to Sportsclubstats. Ottawa, Dallas, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Montreal, New Jersey, Minnesota and Philadelphia are convincing candidates to compete after April 6 (regular season finale).

With a rate of 100 percent (give or take), Detroit is the likeliest team to qualify for the postseason. If the Red Wings finish the season at 5-18-1 or better, they have a 45 percent chance of clinching (at least) the third seed. They only need to win 13 of their final 23 matchups plus one tie to hold onto first place in the Western Conference, the site estimated.

On the other hand, the Devils have played 56 games this season, compiling a 31-21-4 record in the process. If the postseason commenced tonight, they would visit Montreal in the first round.

New Jersey has a 91.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Sportsclubstats. However, due to their skin-tight divisional race, which has four teams separated by six points, there is no indication where they would place.

While the Jersey Boys have had success against other leagues (10-4-0 vs Southeast and 8-4-1 vs Northeast), they are merely 9-10-3 vs. their own division and have not beaten the Rangers and Islanders thus far.

ATLANTIC-- Pittsburgh leads the division with 69 points, holding a 3-point edge over the second place Devils. The Flyers are in third with 65 points after losing three straight. The Rangers (63) and Islanders (55) comprise the final two spots.

Pittsburgh- Obviously, one of the hottest teams in the league. Russian mobster Evgeni “Geno” Malkin has recorded 21 points over the team’s last 10 games without the support of Sidney Crosby, who remains on IR with a high ankle sprain. In his last five games (4-0-1), Malkin has tallied 15 points, including five straight multi-point efforts. For his recent success, the league named him one of the NHL’s stars of the week.

Outlook—Again, the division is up for grabs. The Penguins have cap space and could be buyers. My preseason predictions had them representing the east in the Finals. Despite Crosby’s injury, they have remained atop the division and Power Rankings. Pittsburgh has the second best record at home in the east. But, can they remain this dominant come playoff time? If Crosby returns to the rotation in mid-March as expected, the team will have two of the premier players in the league. Ty Conklin has also replaced an injured Marc-Andre Fleury in net, contributing a 14-3-3 record. He has won three of his last four starts. But, the bottom line is Crosby. We won’t know anything about the Penguins future until Crosby’s return.

Bottom Line—Expect the Penguins to make the playoffs and host the first round.

New Jersey—Plagued by inconsistency all season, the Devils have finally found people to rely on, their blueliners. In their last 16 games, the defensemen have notched 13 goals after knocking home 5 in the first 40 (Devils Team Report). The D-men pulled off an incredible feat last game, scoring the team’s first three goals for the first time since Dec. 31, 1991. It was also the first time the Devils defensemen scored four goals in one game since Oct. 31, 1984 (tip to Tom Gulitti). If only Brian Gionta, Dainius Zubrus and the rest of their offensemen could generate some momentum from the 6-1 romp on Saturday night, they might win the division and host a playoff round or two.

Martin Brodeur will likely start his 16th straight game on Wednesday vs. Ottawa. This is an important game for the Devils who are 0-2 against the Senators this season. Ottawa will be playing their second contest in two nights and have struggled recently. Dating back to Jan. 19, they lost three straight, won two, lost another three consecutive and were victorious their past two games.

Outlook—Rookie coach Brent Sutter said that Brodeur will start every game the rest of the season unless otherwise noted. I disagree with his philosophy, citing Brodeur’s recent playoff experience as proof. He is 35-years-old and not getting any younger. After signing with New Jersey this past off season, I figured that Kevin Weekes would spell the future Hall of Famer for 10-15 games. It looks like Weekes will start one or two more the rest of the way, ending any hopes of resting Brodeur for more than 7 or 8 games. Will he wear down in the playoffs? I sure as hell hope not.

Bottom Line—The Devils will make the playoffs for the 11th consecutive season, but need to add a scoring threat to advance past the first or second round. I believe the east is more competitive from one through eight than in year’s past. Elias has recently improved his offensive performance from the beginning of the year, but the same cannot be said for Zubrus, Gionta and several others who are under contract for years to come. It’s great to see the D-men step up lately.

Will the Devils make it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2003? Unlikely, but you never know.

Philadelphia-- The Flyers have definitely rebounded from record-low 56-point campaign last season. As I mentioned above, they have 65 points with one game in hand over the Penguins and Devils.

They made significant transactions before the season, adding Daniel Briere and Jason Smith among others. The Briere signing has panned out offensively. He has scored 20 goals and added 32 assists. Negatively, he has a -18 plus minus and Smith only has 6 points in 51 games. Their best player, 23-year-old Mike Richards, has been leading the way with 22G and 39A.

The Flyers goaltending is decent with starter Martin Biron but not good enough to compete against the Devils (1-3-0) and Rangers (0-2-1). Biron has surprisingly handled the Penguins this season, going 4-1. Backup Antero Nittymaki has not fared better against NJ (0-2) or the Rangers (6 GA in 2 GP), but he is 2-0 against the conference-leading Senators.

In more unfortunate news, Simon Gagne suffered his third concussion this season and is sidelined indefinitely. Without him in the lineup, the Flyers must make a trade before the deadline or have Briere and their role players step up in his absence.

Outlook—The Flyers should be the third of probably four representatives from the Atlantic to make the playoffs. They rank third in the NHL with 175 goals scored and have a league-best 11.4 shooting percentage. With 67 power play goals, the Flyers are second in the league with 24.6 percent efficiency.

Bottom Line—Similar to the Devils, I do not see them going farther than the first or second round of the playoffs. But, they could be a sleeper team.

New York (Rangers)—Every game is a different story for the Bluebirds. They can beat the archrival Devils (5-0 thus far) but lose to the last place Kings, Toronto twice, and Islanders three times. They are barely hanging onto the seventh seed in the eastern conference standings with Boston (61) and Buffalo (60) creeping up behind them.

The Rangers are relatively healthy but aging. Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan are 35 and 39 years old respectively and are on pace for their worst statistical seasons since their rookie years.

Scott Gomez has been a solid addition for the Rangers, pacing them with 55 points. But, are his numbers inflated due to his surroundings? Will he produce without Hall of Fame scorers on his line? The Rangers must address that serious question in the off season.

After Jagr and Shanahan retire, there are several future stars in the organization, including Nigel Dawes and Brandon Dubinsky. But, they have not scored enough goals (140- 26th) to threaten the conference leaders. Experts predicted the Rangers to finish first or second in the division and the Devils in fourth. While New Jersey has overachieved without a high scorer, the New York has definitely underachieved.

Outlook— If the Rangers make the playoffs, they would be the fourth Atlantic team. I am not sure if that’s a record, but it would certainly be a significant achievement. If the Rangers advance to the Finals, their 0-7-2 record against the Western Conference will make them huge underdogs. Maybe not as much as the New York Giants, but enough to put them at a huge disadvantage.  

Bottom Line—The Flyers, Devils and Rangers have had their difficulties this season, but are likely to proceed to the postseason. What the Rangers will do against Ottawa, Pittsburgh or Montreal is anybody’s guess. I am still holding onto my preseason pick (Pittsburgh) to represent the east in the Finals. While Montreal is playing well after the All Star Break, the Canadiens are young and inexperienced.

I had less confidence in Ottawa despite their A line of Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley. But, with the Senators recent acquisition of Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore, they are definitely favorites to represent the east for the second consecutive season.

I still like the high-flying Penguins and their explosive young guns.

New York (Islanders)—The Islanders started the season on a positive note. After four games, they were 3-1-0 and 11-6-0, including a 5-0 spurt against the Rangers and Devils. The team from Long Island has since reverted to normalcy, losing seven straight.

With Thursday’s loss, the Islanders are now one game under .500 (24-25-7) for the first time this season. Goaltender of the future Rick DiPietro has a 2.71 GAA and .906 SV%, not what the team expected when they drafted him first overall in the 2000 NHL draft.

They have 6.9 million in cap space and can definitely use a trade to spark this team. I am not sure if a rental would be a wise decision considering they are up against a wall this season. They might want to consider long-term investments and the free agent market in the upcoming offseason.

Outlook— The Islanders, who are 1-7-2 in their past 10 games, should finish the season, strengthening their roster for next year. They should be sellers and replace veterans and overpaid skaters (Miroslav Satan) with younger, more talented feet, if possible.  

Bottom Line—The “other” New York team will not represent the Atlantic in the 2007-08 playoffs. Despite adding Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Mike Comrie and the Blog Box, the Islanders have scored the fewest goals this season (132). Even if they somehow make the playoffs, I cannot see them overcoming any of the other seven teams. It’s time for Islanders management to be thoughtful, wise and creative and protect their future. This season is likely over for the Islanders, who should focus on the 2008-09 draft rather than the upcoming postseason.

Predicted Finish:

1) PITTSBURGH 

2) NEW JERSEY

3) PHILADELPHIA

4) NEW YORK RANGERS

5) NEW YORK ISLANDERS 




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