MLB Off-Season

Gabi Secemski's picture

Football may be dominating the headlines, but there has been quite a bit of action thus far in the MLB off season.  A-ROD resigned with the Yankees for 10 years, the World Champion Red Sox kept Mike Lowell, and the Twins continue to dangle ace Johan Santana, hoping that a team will meet their asking price.

 

With the week off from football, I have compiled a list of the best off-season baseball transactions. Later on in the week I will post my list for worst off-season moves.

 Best Transactions: 

1.  December 5th, 2007:  The Detroit Tigers acquired pitcher Dontrelle Willis

and third baseman Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins for outfielder

Cameron Maybin, catcher Mike Rabelo, and pitchers Andrew Miller, Burke

Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz and Dallad Trahern. 

After winning 95 regular season games and representing the American League in the 2006 World Series, the Tigers fell to 88 wins this past season, failing to make the postseason.  They scored big with this deal at third base and in their starting rotation.

 

Miguel Cabrera is an enormous upgrade over Tigers 3B Brandon Inge.  Look at their offensive numbers from last season.  Cabrera was an NL MVP candidate, while Inge struggled:

 Cabrera:

.320 average, 34 HR, 119 RBI, .401 OBP, .565 SLG %

 Inge:

.236 average, 14 HR, 71 RBI, .312 OBP, .376 SLG %

 

Although Willis struggled in 2007 (10-15, 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), he managed to pitch 205.1 innings and strike out 146 batters.  Willis was tremendous as recently as 2005 (22-10, 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 170 Ks) and is still only 26 years old.

 

Cabrera, despite long-term concerns about his conditioning, is only 24 years old and is the best young hitter in baseball, having already accumulated 138 HR, 523 RBI in only 4-1/2 seasons, with a batting line of .313 average, .388 OBP, and .542 SLG %.

 

The Tigers did give up a lot in top prospects Maybin and Miller, but they consider themselves a contender now.  With a young core of pitchers, Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and Willis, along with Cabrera, they have the nucleus to compete in the 2008 season and in the future.

 

2.  December 14th, 2007: The Arizona Diamondbacks acquire pitchers Dan

Haren and Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics for pitchers Brett

Anderson, Dana Eveland, and Greg Smith, outfielders Aaron Cunningham and

Carlos Gonzalez and infielder Chris Carter. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks led the National League with 90 wins in 2007 and reached the NLCS, where Colorado defeated them in a four-game sweep.  Their primary target in the off season was to find a co-ace to share the load with Brandon Webb.  Haren, the 2007 AL All-Star Game starting pitcher, had a great year (15-9, 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 192 K in 222.2 IP) and has logged 662.2 IP in Oakland the past three seasons.

 

In addition, at a time when the price for pitching has gotten out of control, Haren is under contract for three more years at a total cost of $16.25 million.  Considering his talent, that is a relative bargain.  The move from the American League to the National League will help Haren even further, considering the NL West’s San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants batted .251 and .254 in 2007.  Arizona plays the Padres and Giants 18 times each this year.

 

Haren and Webb form the best 1-2 duo in the National League.  At 27 and 28 years old respectively, they should dominate for years to come.  While the trade cost the Diamondbacks some quality prospects, they were able to secure a top-shelf talent to help them contend in 2008 and beyond.

 

3. December 13th, 2007: The Los Angeles Dodgers sign outfielder Andruw Jones,

formerly of the Atlanta Braves, to a 2 year-$32 million contract. 

The price tag may seem high for a player coming off the worst season of his career (.222 AVG, 26 HR, 94 RBI).  However, this is a signing that the Dodgers will greatly benefit from.  They went 82-80 in 2007, finishing 10th in the National League in runs scored.  The run-producing centerfielder, who has amassed over 1100 career RBIs, should help the team.

 

Jones did struggle in 2007, but his previous two years (a combined .263 average, 92 HR, 257 RBI) were absolutely great.  It is not hard to imagine Jones returning to his All-Star form.  He is only 30 years old, and considering the 5-year, 6-year, and even 10-year deals being handed out this off-season, the value of a 2-year investment in Jones is very high.

 

Another key to this signing is that the Dodgers were able to acquire a big bat without having to trade any of their top young players, such as Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, James Loney and Tony Abreu.  The Dodgers still have these young players as trading chips, perhaps to acquire a pitcher such as Orioles ace Eric Bedard.

 

This low-risk, high reward signing will reap big benefits for the LA Dodgers.

  

4. January 3rd, 2008: The Chicago White Sox acquire outfielder Nick Swisher

from the Oakland Athletics for outfielder Ryan Sweeney and pitchers Gio

Gonzalez and and Fautino De Los Santos.  

General Manager Ken Williams has faith in his Chicago White Sox, despite their 72-90 record in 2007, 24 games out of first place.  After acquiring outfielder Nick Swisher, the White Sox are attempting to return to their 2005 World Series-winning form.

 

Swisher is a fine hitter whose strengths lie in his ability to draw walks and hit for power.

 

In the past two seasons, Swisher had a .258 average, with 57 HR, 173 RBI, .371 OBP and .474 SLG %.  He is capable to play first base and all three outfield positions, providing versatility to an aging ball club (14 Sox players have competed for at least seven professional seasons, 5 of them more than 10 entering this year).  After drawing 97 bases on balls in 2006, Swishes continued his patience at the plate, finishing with 100, sixth among AL leaders.

 

Although Swisher is not a superstar, he’s only 27 years old and a good hitter to complement veteran sluggers Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko.  

 

Swisher’s switch-hitting ability adds versatility to the lineup, and his age is key, as Thome (37) and Dye (33) may not have many strong years left in their tanks.

 

If Ken Williams adds more players of Swisher’s quality, then we may talk about the White Sox as a serious contender in a few months.

 

5. November 7th, 2007: The Philadelphia Phillies acquire pitcher Brad Lidge

and infielder Eric Bruntlett from the Houston Astros for pitcher Geoff Geary,

outfielder Michael Bourn and third baseman Mike Costanzo. 

The Phillies bullpen was so bad last year they were forced to shift ace Brett Myers into the closer’s role.  Although Myers performed well in his new role (21 saves, 2.87 ERA as reliever), his greatest value remains as a starter.

 

Lidge’s “stuff” is as good as any closer in baseball.  From 2004-05, Lidge was absolutely dominant.  He rebounded from a dismal 2006 with a solid 2007 (19 saves, 3.36 ERA, 54 hits and 88 Ks in 67 innings).

 

Lidge not only solidifies the bullpen, but with Myers heading the rotation alongside Cole Hamels, the Phillies are stronger in both the bullpen and rotation.  Michael Bourn, a marginal starter, was more than worth that upgrade.  The Astros’ trade of Lidge led to…

  

6. December 14th, 2007: The Houston Astros acquire pitcher Jose Valverde from

the Arizona Diamondbacks for infielder Chris Burke and pitchers Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls. After trading Lidge, the Astros had a hole in their bullpen.  Valverde fills that role well, coming off a huge 2007 (47 saves, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 78K in 64.1 innings). The Astros play in the NL Central, a winnable division and weakest in the majors last season.  Valverde has shown that he is capable of closing games for a contender.  He was able to close games in a division-winning team that went to the NLCS. In return, the Astros gave up Qualls, a decent reliever, and Burke, who was the odd man out when the Astros brought in Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn.  That is a small price to pay in order to fill a huge need.  

7. January 17th, 2008: The Milwaukee Brewers sign outfielder Mike Cameron,

formerly of the San Diego Padres, to a one year-$7 million contract. 

The Cameron signing will improve the Brewers at three positions, CF, 3B and LF.

 

First, Cameron is a top-notch defensive center fielder with power (21 HR) and speed (18 SB).

 

With the signing, Bill Hall, who has experience at CF, SS, 2B and 3B, will return to third base, a more comfortable position for him. He played infield in 2006 and will hopefully revert to his offensive outburst with the change in position.

 

Hall’s Numbers regressed from 2006 to 2007:

2006: .270 AVG, 35 HR, 85 RBI

2007: .254 AVG, 14 HR, 63 RBI

 

In his rookie season, Ryan Braun was destructive with the bat (.324 AVG., 34 HR, 97 RBI, .370 OBP, .634 SLG %) and with the glove (34 errors).  This signing enables the Brewers to shift Braun to left field, where his throwing accuracy issues will not affect the team as much.

 The Cameron signing, in addition to being a short-term deal, will upgrade the team at three different positions.  This is a very good signing for the Brewers, who are a few players away from making the playoffs.  They were 83-79 last year in the Central Division and missed the postseason by two games.  

8. January 17th, 2008: The Braves acquire outfielder Mark Kotsay and cash

considerations from the Oakland Athletics for pitchers Joey Devine and Jamie

Richmond. 

With a huge hole in center field, the Atlanta Braves acquired Mark Kotsay from Oakland to replace Andruw Jones.  They even got the small-market A’s to kick in $5 million to cover most of Kotsay’s $7.25 million salary in 2008.

 

Kotsay missed most of 2007 with injuries (56 games played), but when healthy, he is a 15 HR and 75 RBI bat with Gold Glove defense in center field.  Rather than re-sign a center field for big money, the Braves chanced with a low-risk, high-reward Kotsay who could pay big dividends.  Considering the Braves’ payroll limitations, this trade could prove to be a steal.

  

9. December 26th, 2007: The San Diego Padres sign pitcher Mark Prior,

formerly of the Chicago Cubs, to a one year-$1 million contract. 

Mark Prior has been the poster boy for ace potential pitchers that cannot stay healthy.  At his best (and healthiest), Prior has been very successful (42-29, 3.51 ERA, 757 Ks in 657 IP).  His health is the concern, having only made nine starts since 2005, including missing the entire 2007 season.

 

However, in today’s baseball marketplace, $1 million does not get a team very much. The Padres took a roll of the dice, bringing Prior back to his hometown and to a pitcher friendly ballpark.  If Prior is able to stay healthy, the $1 million investment will pay itself over countless times.  There is little downside to this signing with huge potential gain.

  

10. (a). November 30th, 2007: The Washington Nationals acquire outfielder

Lastings Milledge from the New York Mets for catcher Brian Schneider and

outfielder Ryan Church.

       (b). December 3rd, 2007: The Washington Nationals acquire outfielder

Elijah Dukes from the Tampa Bay Rays for pitcher Glenn Gibson. 

The Nationals received two extremely talented young outfielders for a catcher with a .252 career batting average and little power, a 4th outfielder and a marginal pitching prospect.

 

The upsides of Milledge (22 years old) and Dukes (23 years old) are very high, and the Nationals will have them under control for years to come.  In only 184 at bats last year, Dukes hit 10 home runs, a display of the power potential that he possesses.

 

In an identical 184 at bats, Milledge hit 7 home runs, and is a quality fielder that can fill the gap in center field for Washington.

 

If Milledge and Dukes are able to fulfill their vast potential, they could be stars in the Washington outfield for years to come, and fans will look back at these trades as absolute steals.

The off-season's worst 10 transactions will be coming soon. Please send any feedback to gscempski@yahoo.com

Thank you,

Gabi Secemski




Random image